Why polling failure is often journalistic failure

This is an abbreviated version of a commentary originally posted at The Hill; the commentary was drawn from Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections. It’s axiomatic that pre-election polls set the narrative for U.S. presidential campaigns. … polls are central to shaping conventional wisdom about the competitiveness of the races. But […]

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The hazards of glide-path campaigning

This is an abbreviated version of a commentary originally published at The Hill The “Dewey defeats Truman” upset election of 1948 is endlessly fascinating, an enthralling morality tale about the cockiness of pollsters, the credulity of journalists, and the hazards of glide-path campaigning. Pollsters were confident that Thomas E. Dewey would unseat President Harry Truman […]

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Poll matters: Why it’s much too soon to write off Trump’s reelection

Five months from the presidential election in November and analysts across the political spectrum are saying the electoral map is bleak for President Donald Trump. Even conservative analysts have written ominously about Trump’s prospects for reelection. “Republicans have every reason to be worried” about the presidential election in November, Matthew Continetti, founding editor of the […]

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